January 21, 2022
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Genaro Valdez | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 964 | 984 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Matt Frevola's 6-fight experience advantage (7 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Frevola for the expected result. Had Genaro Valdez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Genaro Valdez | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 978 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Genaro Valdez | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:15 | 3:15 |
| Win Type ELO | 954 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +98 |
Matt Frevola earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:15, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Genaro Valdez | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 10 | 60 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 38 | 101 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 10 | 71 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 4 |
| Striking ELO | 666 | 1 165 |
| ELO Change | -334 | +334 |
Matt Frevola dominated the striking exchanges with 71 vs 10 total strikes, 60 vs 10 significant strikes, 59.4% vs 26.3% accuracy, including 4 devastating knockdowns. Matt Frevola capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Genaro Valdez | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:08 | 1:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 43 |
| Ground ELO | 939 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -61 | +61 |
Matt Frevola controlled Genaro Valdez on the ground with 1:07 of control time, 43 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Genaro Valdez | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 225 |
| Activity ELO | 980 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +25 |
Matt Frevola demonstrated standard activity with 225 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Matt Frevola capitalized on this activity level, while Genaro Valdez's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Genaro Valdez | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 979 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +24 |
Matt Frevola started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Genaro Valdez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Genaro Valdez | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 978 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.