February 16, 2024
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Ian Machado Garry |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 231 | 1 338 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +35 |
Ian Machado Garry overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (7 vs 11 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Geoff Neal.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Ian Machado Garry |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 076 | 1 145 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Ian Machado Garry |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 409 | 1 407 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Ian Machado Garry receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Ian Machado Garry |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 46 | 67 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 89 | 135 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 57 | 80 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 415 | 1 462 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Ian Machado Garry controlled the striking exchanges with 80 vs 57 total strikes, 67 vs 46 significant strikes. Ian Machado Garry capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Ian Machado Garry |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:45 | 0:12 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 263 | 1 275 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Ian Machado Garry did not secure a significant ground advantage against Geoff Neal on the ground through positional advantages and pressure, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Ian Machado Garry |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 350 | 183 |
| Activity ELO | 1 198 | 1 331 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +19 |
Ian Machado Garry demonstrated standard activity with 183 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Ian Machado Garry capitalized on this activity level, while Geoff Neal's 350-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Ian Machado Garry |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 7 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 136 | 1 260 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +52 |
Ian Machado Garry continued building serious momentum with a 7-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Geoff Neal's now at 0.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Ian Machado Garry |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 075 | 1 144 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.