May 7, 2021
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 25 |
| Experience Gap | -18 | 18 |
| Experience ELO | 1 168 | 1 278 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Neil Magny's 18-fight experience advantage (25 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Neil Magny for the expected result. Had Geoff Neal pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 065 | 1 188 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 329 | 1 473 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Neil Magny earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 35 | 55 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 73 | 174 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 37 | 89 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 309 | 1 384 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Neil Magny dominated the striking exchanges with 89 vs 37 total strikes, 55 vs 35 significant strikes, 31.6% vs 47.9% accuracy. Neil Magny capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 10 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:50 | 1:43 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 205 | 1 386 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Neil Magny edged out Geoff Neal on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 1:43 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 140 | 108 |
| Activity ELO | 1 165 | 1 483 |
| ELO Change | -6 | +16 |
Neil Magny demonstrated solid activity levels with 108 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Neil Magny capitalized on this activity level, while Geoff Neal's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 112 | 1 261 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +15 |
Neil Magny started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Geoff Neal is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 064 | 1 177 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

