October 26, 2024
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 36 |
| Experience Gap | -24 | 24 |
| Experience ELO | 1 310 | 1 189 |
| ELO Change | +79 | -30 |
Geoff Neal overcame a 24-fight experience disadvantage (12 vs 36 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Rafael Dos Anjos.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 102 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:30 | 1:30 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 502 | 1 342 |
| ELO Change | +93 | -39 |
Geoff Neal earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:30, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 18 | 4 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 30 | 13 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 21 | 4 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 480 | 1 164 |
| ELO Change | +65 | -65 |
Geoff Neal controlled the striking exchanges with 18 vs 4 significant strikes, 60.0% vs 30.8% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Geoff Neal capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:27 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 325 | 1 217 |
| ELO Change | +62 | -62 |
Geoff Neal landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 253 | 232 |
| Activity ELO | 1 237 | 1 353 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -31 |
Geoff Neal demonstrated standard activity with 253 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Geoff Neal capitalized on this activity level, while Rafael Dos Anjos's 232-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 163 | 1 176 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -25 |
Geoff Neal started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafael Dos Anjos is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 098 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.