March 3, 2023
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Shavkat Rakhmonov |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 258 | 1 351 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +39 |
Shavkat Rakhmonov overcame a 5-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 10 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Geoff Neal.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Shavkat Rakhmonov |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 095 | 1 122 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Shavkat Rakhmonov |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:17 | 4:17 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 420 | 1 460 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +79 |
Shavkat Rakhmonov earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 4:17, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Geoff Neal was submitted.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Shavkat Rakhmonov |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 69 | 113 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 145 | 179 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 69 | 120 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 447 | 1 333 |
| ELO Change | -55 | +55 |
Shavkat Rakhmonov dominated the striking exchanges with 120 vs 69 total strikes, 113 vs 69 significant strikes, 63.1% vs 47.6% accuracy. Shavkat Rakhmonov capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Shavkat Rakhmonov |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:12 | 3:43 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 286 | 1 527 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Shavkat Rakhmonov controlled Geoff Neal on the ground with 3:43 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Shavkat Rakhmonov |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 211 | 253 |
| Activity ELO | 1 213 | 1 207 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +31 |
Shavkat Rakhmonov demonstrated standard activity with 253 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Shavkat Rakhmonov capitalized on this activity level, while Geoff Neal's 211-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Shavkat Rakhmonov |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 5 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 154 | 1 182 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +44 |
Shavkat Rakhmonov continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Geoff Neal's now at 0.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Shavkat Rakhmonov |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 094 | 1 122 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.