December 18, 2020
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -10 | 10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 194 | 1 287 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Stephen Thompson's 10-fight experience advantage (16 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Stephen Thompson for the expected result. Had Geoff Neal pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 081 | 1 149 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 361 | 1 526 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Stephen Thompson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 85 | 171 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 179 | 406 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 110 | 191 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 349 | 1 479 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Stephen Thompson dominated the striking exchanges with 191 vs 110 total strikes, 171 vs 85 significant strikes. Stephen Thompson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:46 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 238 | 1 300 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Stephen Thompson did not secure a significant ground advantage against Geoff Neal on the ground through positional advantages and pressure, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 371 | 413 |
| Activity ELO | 1 171 | 1 284 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +15 |
Stephen Thompson demonstrated extended layoff with 413 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Stephen Thompson capitalized on this activity level, while Geoff Neal's 371-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 126 | 1 241 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +19 |
Stephen Thompson extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Geoff Neal is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 080 | 1 139 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

