Geoff Neal vs Stephen Thompson

December 18, 2020

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1200
(-23)
Geoff Neal
Winner: Stephen Thompson
Decision - Unanimous
Round 5 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Geoff Neal-23
Stephen Thompson+23
1301
(+23)
Stephen Thompson

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Geoff Neal: -28Stephen Thompson: +28

Performance Statistics

MetricGeoff NealStephen Thompson
Total UFC Fights616
Experience Gap-1010
Experience ELO1 1941 287
ELO Change-28+28
💡

What Happened

Stephen Thompson's 10-fight experience advantage (16 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Stephen Thompson for the expected result. Had Geoff Neal pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Geoff Neal: -19Stephen Thompson: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricGeoff NealStephen Thompson
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0811 149
ELO Change-19+19
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Geoff Neal: -30Stephen Thompson: +30

Performance Statistics

MetricGeoff NealStephen Thompson
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round55
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 3611 526
ELO Change-30+30
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What Happened

Stephen Thompson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Geoff Neal: -31Stephen Thompson: +31

Performance Statistics

MetricGeoff NealStephen Thompson
Significant Strikes Landed85171
Significant Strikes Attempted179406
Total Strikes Landed110191
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 3491 479
ELO Change-31+31
💡

What Happened

Stephen Thompson dominated the striking exchanges with 191 vs 110 total strikes, 171 vs 85 significant strikes. Stephen Thompson capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Geoff Neal: -20Stephen Thompson: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricGeoff NealStephen Thompson
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted00
Ground Control Time3:460:00
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO1 2381 300
ELO Change-20+20
💡

What Happened

Stephen Thompson did not secure a significant ground advantage against Geoff Neal on the ground through positional advantages and pressure, with almost no grappling bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Geoff Neal: -16Stephen Thompson: +15

Performance Statistics

MetricGeoff NealStephen Thompson
Days Since Last Fight371413
Activity ELO1 1711 284
ELO Change-16+15
💡

What Happened

Stephen Thompson demonstrated extended layoff with 413 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Stephen Thompson capitalized on this activity level, while Geoff Neal's 371-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Geoff Neal: -16Stephen Thompson: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricGeoff NealStephen Thompson
Win Streak02
Win Streak ELO1 1261 241
ELO Change-16+19
💡

What Happened

Stephen Thompson extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Geoff Neal is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Geoff Neal: -20Stephen Thompson: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricGeoff NealStephen Thompson
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0801 139
ELO Change-20+20
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.