August 5, 2022
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 19 |
| Experience Gap | -10 | 10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 287 | 1 259 |
| ELO Change | +64 | -38 |
Geoff Neal overcame a 10-fight experience disadvantage (9 vs 19 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Vicente Luque.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 117 | 1 154 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:01 | 2:01 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 473 | 1 487 |
| ELO Change | +129 | -64 |
Geoff Neal gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 121 | 97 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 211 | 203 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 125 | 97 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 2 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 502 | 1 304 |
| ELO Change | +169 | -169 |
Geoff Neal dominated the striking exchanges with 125 vs 97 total strikes, 121 vs 97 significant strikes, 57.3% vs 47.8% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Geoff Neal capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:47 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 313 | 1 284 |
| ELO Change | +83 | -83 |
Geoff Neal landed 2 knockdowns followed by 1 ground strike. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 238 | 112 |
| Activity ELO | 1 238 | 1 360 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -32 |
Geoff Neal demonstrated standard activity with 238 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Geoff Neal capitalized on this activity level, while Vicente Luque's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 177 | 1 224 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -27 |
Geoff Neal extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Vicente Luque is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Geoff Neal | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 116 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.