April 17, 2015
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | George Sullivan | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 029 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Tim Means's 6-fight experience advantage (9 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tim Means for the expected result. Had George Sullivan pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | George Sullivan | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 022 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | George Sullivan | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:41 | 3:41 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 097 | 1 199 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +64 |
Tim Means earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 3:41, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. George Sullivan was submitted.
| Metric | George Sullivan | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 39 | 48 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 164 | 130 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 43 | 69 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 103 | 1 265 |
| ELO Change | -51 | +51 |
Tim Means controlled the striking exchanges with 69 vs 43 total strikes, 48 vs 39 significant strikes, 36.9% vs 23.8% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Tim Means capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | George Sullivan | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:27 | 3:46 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 939 | 1 214 |
| ELO Change | -175 | +175 |
Tim Means dominated George Sullivan on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 3:46 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | George Sullivan | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 217 | 49 |
| Activity ELO | 1 035 | 1 227 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +75 |
Tim Means demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 49 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Tim Means capitalized on this activity level, while George Sullivan's 217-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | George Sullivan | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 029 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +29 |
Tim Means extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. George Sullivan is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | George Sullivan | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 022 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

