October 21, 2004
UFC Welterweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Georges St-Pierre | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 077 | 1 186 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Matt Hughes's 9-fight experience advantage (12 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Hughes for the expected result. Had Georges St-Pierre pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Georges St-Pierre | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 033 | 1 287 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +28 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Matt Hughes captured the UFC Welterweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Georges St-Pierre | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:59 | 4:59 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 112 | 1 330 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +41 |
Matt Hughes earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:59, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Georges St-Pierre | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 4 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 17 | 14 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 12 | 8 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 209 | 1 296 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Georges St-Pierre lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Matt Hughes's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Georges St-Pierre | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:17 | 2:20 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 150 | 1 363 |
| ELO Change | -54 | +54 |
Matt Hughes controlled Georges St-Pierre on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 2:20 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Georges St-Pierre | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 125 | 125 |
| Activity ELO | 1 048 | 1 225 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +26 |
Matt Hughes demonstrated solid activity levels with 125 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matt Hughes capitalized on this activity level, while Georges St-Pierre's 125-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Georges St-Pierre | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 034 | 1 184 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +17 |
Matt Hughes extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Georges St-Pierre is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Georges St-Pierre | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 026 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.