April 6, 2007
UFC Welterweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Georges St-Pierre | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 204 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +49 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (9 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Georges St-Pierre | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 187 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +95 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Matt Serra captured the UFC Welterweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Georges St-Pierre | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:25 | 3:25 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 353 | 1 229 |
| ELO Change | -75 | +160 |
Matt Serra earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:25, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Georges St-Pierre | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 20 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 23 | 40 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 6 | 20 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 1 315 | 1 300 |
| ELO Change | -287 | +287 |
Matt Serra dominated the striking exchanges with 20 vs 6 significant strikes, 50.0% vs 26.1% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Matt Serra capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Georges St-Pierre | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:05 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 429 | 1 248 |
| ELO Change | -94 | +94 |
Matt Serra landed 2 knockdowns followed by 7 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Georges St-Pierre | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 140 | 147 |
| Activity ELO | 1 225 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +62 |
Matt Serra demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matt Serra capitalized on this activity level, while Georges St-Pierre's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Georges St-Pierre | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 161 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +36 |
Matt Serra extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Georges St-Pierre is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Georges St-Pierre | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 106 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.