July 10, 2009
UFC Welterweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Georges St-Pierre | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 365 | 1 226 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Georges St-Pierre's 3-fight experience advantage (15 vs 12 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Georges St-Pierre for the expected result. Had Thiago Alves pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Georges St-Pierre | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 399 | 1 144 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -9 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Georges St-Pierre captured the UFC Welterweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Georges St-Pierre | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 629 | 1 457 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Georges St-Pierre earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Georges St-Pierre | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 59 | 30 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 128 | 162 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 148 | 72 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 716 | 1 455 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Georges St-Pierre dominated the striking exchanges with 148 vs 72 total strikes, 59 vs 30 significant strikes, 46.1% vs 18.5% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Georges St-Pierre capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Georges St-Pierre | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 10 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 12 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 13:14 | 1:20 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 14 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 760 | 1 271 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
Georges St-Pierre landed 1 knockdown followed by 14 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Georges St-Pierre | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 161 | 259 |
| Activity ELO | 1 448 | 1 362 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -19 |
Georges St-Pierre demonstrated solid activity levels with 161 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Georges St-Pierre capitalized on this activity level, while Thiago Alves's 259-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Georges St-Pierre | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 6 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 339 | 1 245 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -19 |
Georges St-Pierre continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Thiago Alves's now at 0.
| Metric | Georges St-Pierre | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 237 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.