July 7, 2017
Middleweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gerald Meerschaert | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 062 | 1 139 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Thiago Santos's 8-fight experience advantage (11 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Santos for the expected result. Had Gerald Meerschaert pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gerald Meerschaert | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 020 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gerald Meerschaert | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:04 | 2:04 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 114 | 1 346 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +49 |
Thiago Santos gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Gerald Meerschaert | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 15 | 60 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 29 | 115 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 15 | 65 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 017 | 1 314 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Thiago Santos dominated the striking exchanges with 65 vs 15 total strikes, 60 vs 15 significant strikes. Thiago Santos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gerald Meerschaert | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:10 | 2:13 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 39 |
| Ground ELO | 1 063 | 1 158 |
| ELO Change | -58 | +58 |
Thiago Santos controlled Gerald Meerschaert on the ground with 0 takedowns, 2:13 of control time, 39 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Gerald Meerschaert | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 139 | 139 |
| Activity ELO | 1 065 | 1 167 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +36 |
Thiago Santos demonstrated solid activity levels with 139 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Santos capitalized on this activity level, while Gerald Meerschaert's 139-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gerald Meerschaert | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 027 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +24 |
Thiago Santos extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gerald Meerschaert is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gerald Meerschaert | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 020 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.