October 2, 2020
Women's Bantamweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Germaine de Randamie | Julianna Pena |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 171 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Germaine de Randamie's 2-fight experience advantage (9 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Germaine de Randamie for the expected result. Had Julianna Pena pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Germaine de Randamie | Julianna Pena |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 156 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Germaine de Randamie | Julianna Pena |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:25 | 3:25 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 351 | 1 160 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -28 |
Germaine de Randamie earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 3:25, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Julianna Pena was submitted.
| Metric | Germaine de Randamie | Julianna Pena |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 37 | 27 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 91 | 91 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 57 | 58 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 301 | 1 217 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Germaine de Randamie edged the striking exchanges with 37 vs 27 significant strikes, 40.7% vs 29.7% accuracy. Germaine de Randamie capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Germaine de Randamie | Julianna Pena |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:48 | 5:55 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 132 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -43 |
Germaine de Randamie edged out Julianna Pena on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:48 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Germaine de Randamie | Julianna Pena |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 294 | 448 |
| Activity ELO | 1 118 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Germaine de Randamie demonstrated standard activity with 294 days since her last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Germaine de Randamie capitalized on this activity level, while Julianna Pena's 448-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Germaine de Randamie | Julianna Pena |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 151 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -19 |
Germaine de Randamie started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Julianna Pena is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Germaine de Randamie | Julianna Pena |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Bantamweight | Women's Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 115 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.