September 7, 1995
Open Weight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gerry Harris | Paul Varelans |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 969 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +32 |
Paul Varelans's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Paul Varelans for the expected result. Had Gerry Harris pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gerry Harris | Paul Varelans |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gerry Harris | Paul Varelans |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:05 | 1:05 |
| Win Type ELO | 965 | 1 145 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +83 |
Paul Varelans earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:05, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Gerry Harris | Paul Varelans |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 2 | 4 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 0 | 35 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 873 | 1 145 |
| ELO Change | -127 | +127 |
Paul Varelans controlled the striking exchanges with 35 vs 0 total strikes, 100.0% vs 0.0% accuracy. Paul Varelans capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gerry Harris | Paul Varelans |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | -- | -- |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 936 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | -64 | +64 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Gerry Harris | Paul Varelans |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 56 |
| Activity ELO | 979 | 1 105 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +105 |
Paul Varelans demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 56 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Paul Varelans capitalized on this activity level, while Gerry Harris's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gerry Harris | Paul Varelans |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 979 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Paul Varelans started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gerry Harris is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gerry Harris | Paul Varelans |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | N/A | N/A |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

