March 10, 2017
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gian Villante | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 034 | 1 194 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Mauricio Rua's 7-fight experience advantage (17 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Mauricio Rua for the expected result. Had Gian Villante pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gian Villante | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 008 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gian Villante | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 0:59 | 0:59 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 205 | 1 401 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +59 |
Mauricio Rua gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Gian Villante | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 55 | 94 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 151 | 173 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 55 | 94 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 1 061 | 1 341 |
| ELO Change | -101 | +101 |
Mauricio Rua dominated the striking exchanges with 94 vs 55 total strikes, 94 vs 55 significant strikes, 54.3% vs 36.4% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Mauricio Rua capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gian Villante | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:09 | 0:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 027 | 1 216 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Mauricio Rua edged out Gian Villante on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Gian Villante | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 92 | 302 |
| Activity ELO | 1 074 | 1 216 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
Mauricio Rua demonstrated standard activity with 302 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Mauricio Rua capitalized on this activity level, while Gian Villante's 92-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gian Villante | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 021 | 1 118 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +23 |
Mauricio Rua extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gian Villante is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gian Villante | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 005 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.