May 31, 2018
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gian Villante | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 008 | 1 116 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Sam Alvey's 2-fight experience advantage (15 vs 13 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Sam Alvey for the expected result. Had Gian Villante pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gian Villante | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 994 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gian Villante | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 192 | 1 274 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Sam Alvey receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Gian Villante | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 50 | 53 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 133 | 122 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 50 | 59 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 030 | 1 285 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Sam Alvey controlled the striking exchanges, including 1 devastating knockdown. Sam Alvey capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gian Villante | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:06 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 017 | 1 190 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Gian Villante | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 132 | 97 |
| Activity ELO | 1 076 | 1 357 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +20 |
Sam Alvey demonstrated solid activity levels with 97 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Sam Alvey capitalized on this activity level, while Gian Villante's 132-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gian Villante | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 010 | 1 133 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +19 |
Sam Alvey extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gian Villante is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gian Villante | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 991 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

