December 8, 2016
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gian Villante | Saparbeg Safarov |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 055 | 971 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Gian Villante's 8-fight experience advantage (9 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gian Villante for the expected result. Had Saparbeg Safarov pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gian Villante | Saparbeg Safarov |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 024 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gian Villante | Saparbeg Safarov |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:54 | 2:54 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 234 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -21 |
Gian Villante gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Gian Villante | Saparbeg Safarov |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 60 | 37 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 108 | 131 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 73 | 37 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 162 | 925 |
| ELO Change | +75 | -75 |
Gian Villante controlled the striking exchanges with 73 vs 37 total strikes, 60 vs 37 significant strikes, 55.6% vs 28.2% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Gian Villante capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gian Villante | Saparbeg Safarov |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:23 | 0:12 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 10 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 047 | 946 |
| ELO Change | +54 | -54 |
Gian Villante landed 1 knockdown followed by 10 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Gian Villante | Saparbeg Safarov |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 279 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 088 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Gian Villante demonstrated standard activity with 279 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Gian Villante capitalized on this activity level, while Saparbeg Safarov's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gian Villante | Saparbeg Safarov |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 039 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Gian Villante started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Saparbeg Safarov is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gian Villante | Saparbeg Safarov |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 024 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

