July 24, 2015
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gian Villante | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 022 | 1 095 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Tom Lawlor's 4-fight experience advantage (10 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tom Lawlor for the expected result. Had Gian Villante pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gian Villante | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 003 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gian Villante | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:27 | 0:27 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 119 | 1 305 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +64 |
Tom Lawlor gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Gian Villante | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 31 | 22 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 64 | 52 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 31 | 25 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 012 | 1 194 |
| ELO Change | -78 | +78 |
Gian Villante controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (31 vs 22). However, since Gian Villante lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Tom Lawlor's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Gian Villante | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:03 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 042 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Gian Villante | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 98 | 840 |
| Activity ELO | 1 043 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +17 |
Tom Lawlor demonstrated extended layoff with 840 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Tom Lawlor capitalized on this activity level, while Gian Villante's 98-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gian Villante | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 014 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +25 |
Tom Lawlor extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gian Villante is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gian Villante | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 003 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

