November 21, 2002
UFC Welterweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gil Castillo | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 982 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Matt Hughes's 4-fight experience advantage (7 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Hughes for the expected result. Had Gil Castillo pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gil Castillo | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 991 | 1 223 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +31 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Matt Hughes captured the UFC Welterweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Gil Castillo | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 995 | 1 261 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +10 |
Matt Hughes earned an early finish with a TKO - Doctor's Stoppage in round 1 at 5:00, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Gil Castillo | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 22 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 2 | 32 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 1 | 36 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 948 | 1 297 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Matt Hughes controlled the striking exchanges with 36 vs 1 total strikes, 22 vs 1 significant strikes, 68.8% vs 50.0% accuracy. Matt Hughes capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gil Castillo | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 4:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 18 |
| Ground ELO | 1 024 | 1 339 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Matt Hughes controlled Gil Castillo on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 4:04 of control time, 18 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Gil Castillo | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 315 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 017 | 1 153 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +31 |
Matt Hughes demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matt Hughes capitalized on this activity level, while Gil Castillo's 315-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gil Castillo | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 987 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +22 |
Matt Hughes extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gil Castillo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gil Castillo | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 984 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.