February 3, 2006
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gilbert Aldana | Paul Buentello |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 975 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Paul Buentello's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Paul Buentello for the expected result. Had Gilbert Aldana pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gilbert Aldana | Paul Buentello |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gilbert Aldana | Paul Buentello |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:27 | 2:27 |
| Win Type ELO | 975 | 1 202 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +51 |
Paul Buentello gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Gilbert Aldana | Paul Buentello |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 28 | 49 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 54 | 71 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 38 | 67 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 958 | 1 181 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
Paul Buentello controlled the striking exchanges with 67 vs 38 total strikes, 49 vs 28 significant strikes, 69.0% vs 51.9% accuracy. Paul Buentello capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gilbert Aldana | Paul Buentello |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:48 | 1:57 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 976 | 1 151 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Paul Buentello edged out Gilbert Aldana on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:57 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Gilbert Aldana | Paul Buentello |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 121 |
| Activity ELO | 982 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +36 |
Paul Buentello demonstrated solid activity levels with 121 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Paul Buentello capitalized on this activity level, while Gilbert Aldana's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gilbert Aldana | Paul Buentello |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Paul Buentello started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gilbert Aldana is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gilbert Aldana | Paul Buentello |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

