September 27, 2019
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 209 | 1 156 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (13 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 128 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 357 | 1 335 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -52 |
Gilbert Burns earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 30 | 20 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 76 | 36 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 46 | 26 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 261 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Gilbert Burns edged the striking exchanges with 46 vs 26 total strikes, 30 vs 20 significant strikes, 39.5% vs 55.6% accuracy. Gilbert Burns capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:55 | 4:48 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 400 | 1 290 |
| ELO Change | +61 | -61 |
Gilbert Burns controlled Gunnar Nelson on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:55 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 49 | 196 |
| Activity ELO | 1 303 | 1 139 |
| ELO Change | +87 | -17 |
Gilbert Burns demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 49 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Gilbert Burns capitalized on this activity level, while Gunnar Nelson's 196-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 163 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -19 |
Gilbert Burns extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gunnar Nelson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 128 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

