September 15, 2017
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Jason Saggo |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 079 | 991 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (7 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Jason Saggo |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 054 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Jason Saggo |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:55 | 4:55 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 191 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | +95 | -46 |
Gilbert Burns gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Jason Saggo |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 42 | 35 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 95 | 92 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 50 | 39 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 125 | 994 |
| ELO Change | +114 | -114 |
Gilbert Burns controlled the striking exchanges with 42 vs 35 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Gilbert Burns capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Jason Saggo |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:33 | 1:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 177 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Gilbert Burns landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Jason Saggo |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 357 | 280 |
| Activity ELO | 1 100 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Gilbert Burns demonstrated standard activity with 357 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Gilbert Burns capitalized on this activity level, while Jason Saggo's 280-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Jason Saggo |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 068 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Gilbert Burns started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jason Saggo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Jason Saggo |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 054 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.