February 12, 2021
UFC Welterweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Kamaru Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 317 | 1 504 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +23 |
Kamaru Usman overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (13 vs 16 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Gilbert Burns.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Kamaru Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 171 | 1 391 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +34 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Kamaru Usman captured the UFC Welterweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Kamaru Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 0:34 | 0:34 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 510 | 1 706 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +58 |
Kamaru Usman gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Kamaru Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 45 | 83 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 108 | 136 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 55 | 93 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 1 443 | 1 778 |
| ELO Change | -58 | +58 |
Kamaru Usman dominated the striking exchanges with 93 vs 55 total strikes, 83 vs 45 significant strikes, 61.0% vs 41.7% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Kamaru Usman capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Kamaru Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 2:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 26 |
| Ground ELO | 1 495 | 1 805 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Kamaru Usman controlled Gilbert Burns on the ground with 2:05 of control time, 26 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Kamaru Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 260 | 218 |
| Activity ELO | 1 399 | 1 470 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +24 |
Kamaru Usman demonstrated standard activity with 218 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Kamaru Usman capitalized on this activity level, while Gilbert Burns's 260-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Kamaru Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 13 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 264 | 1 624 |
| ELO Change | -6 | +51 |
Kamaru Usman extended his incredible 13-fight win streak, earning one of the highest possible momentum bonuses for sustained dominance. This elite-level consistency triggered exponential streak bonuses, while Gilbert Burns is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Kamaru Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 156 | 1 258 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.