July 6, 2016
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Lukasz Sajewski |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 082 | 947 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Gilbert Burns's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gilbert Burns for the expected result. Had Lukasz Sajewski pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Lukasz Sajewski |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 056 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Lukasz Sajewski |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:57 | 4:57 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 151 | 934 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -25 |
Gilbert Burns earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:57, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Lukasz Sajewski |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 14 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 30 | 30 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 16 | 15 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 041 | 943 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Lukasz Sajewski lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Gilbert Burns's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Lukasz Sajewski |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:21 | 0:47 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 218 | 911 |
| ELO Change | +63 | -63 |
Gilbert Burns dominated Lukasz Sajewski on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:21 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Lukasz Sajewski |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 243 | 383 |
| Activity ELO | 1 102 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -15 |
Gilbert Burns demonstrated standard activity with 243 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Gilbert Burns capitalized on this activity level, while Lukasz Sajewski's 383-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Lukasz Sajewski |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 068 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -17 |
Gilbert Burns started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Lukasz Sajewski is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Lukasz Sajewski |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 056 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.