May 17, 2025
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Michael Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 24 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 18 | -18 |
| Experience ELO | 1 255 | 1 397 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +58 |
Michael Morales overcame a 18-fight experience disadvantage (6 vs 24 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Gilbert Burns.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Michael Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 112 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Michael Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:39 | 3:39 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 383 | 1 504 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +95 |
Michael Morales earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:39, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Michael Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 33 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 18 | 56 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 5 | 35 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 1 169 | 1 525 |
| ELO Change | -89 | +89 |
Michael Morales dominated the striking exchanges with 35 vs 5 total strikes, 33 vs 5 significant strikes, 58.9% vs 27.8% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Michael Morales capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Michael Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:30 | 0:10 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 391 | 1 248 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Michael Morales landed 2 knockdowns followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Michael Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 253 | 267 |
| Activity ELO | 1 363 | 1 214 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +41 |
Michael Morales demonstrated standard activity with 267 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Michael Morales capitalized on this activity level, while Gilbert Burns's 253-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Michael Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 6 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 198 | 1 225 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +58 |
Michael Morales continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Gilbert Burns's now at 0.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Michael Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 100 | 1 135 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.