April 26, 2019
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Mike Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 139 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Gilbert Burns's 10-fight experience advantage (11 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gilbert Burns for the expected result. Had Mike Davis pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Mike Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 090 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Mike Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:15 | 4:15 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 279 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -16 |
Gilbert Burns earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:15, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Mike Davis was submitted.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Mike Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 49 | 13 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 87 | 44 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 81 | 17 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 223 | 970 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Gilbert Burns dominated the striking exchanges with 81 vs 17 total strikes, 49 vs 13 significant strikes, 56.3% vs 29.5% accuracy. Gilbert Burns capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Mike Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:27 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 17 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 304 | 933 |
| ELO Change | +67 | -67 |
Gilbert Burns dominated Mike Davis on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 5:27 of control time, 17 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Mike Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 140 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 168 | 987 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -13 |
Gilbert Burns demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Gilbert Burns capitalized on this activity level, while Mike Davis's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Mike Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 112 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -16 |
Gilbert Burns extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mike Davis is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Mike Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 090 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

