July 9, 2021
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 17 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 346 | 1 268 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -19 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (17 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 191 | 1 129 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 554 | 1 482 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -44 |
Gilbert Burns earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 29 | 19 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 43 | 53 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 101 | 59 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 481 | 1 441 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Gilbert Burns controlled the striking exchanges with 101 vs 59 total strikes, 29 vs 19 significant strikes, 67.4% vs 35.8% accuracy. Gilbert Burns capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:13 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 13 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 538 | 1 257 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -43 |
Gilbert Burns dominated Stephen Thompson on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 7:13 of control time, 13 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | 203 |
| Activity ELO | 1 428 | 1 270 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -14 |
Gilbert Burns demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Gilbert Burns capitalized on this activity level, while Stephen Thompson's 203-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 286 | 1 221 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Gilbert Burns started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Stephen Thompson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gilbert Burns | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 176 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

