September 8, 2017
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gilbert Melendez | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 26 |
| Experience Gap | -20 | 20 |
| Experience ELO | 990 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Jeremy Stephens's 20-fight experience advantage (26 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jeremy Stephens for the expected result. Had Gilbert Melendez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gilbert Melendez | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 957 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gilbert Melendez | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 018 | 1 321 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
Jeremy Stephens earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Gilbert Melendez | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 29 | 96 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 129 | 250 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 30 | 101 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 5 |
| Striking ELO | 944 | 1 356 |
| ELO Change | -80 | +80 |
Jeremy Stephens dominated the striking exchanges with 101 vs 30 total strikes, 96 vs 29 significant strikes, 38.4% vs 22.5% accuracy, including 5 devastating knockdowns. Jeremy Stephens capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gilbert Melendez | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 1:20 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 10 |
| Ground ELO | 953 | 1 142 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Jeremy Stephens landed 5 knockdowns followed by 10 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Gilbert Melendez | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 413 | 147 |
| Activity ELO | 987 | 1 219 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +20 |
Jeremy Stephens demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jeremy Stephens capitalized on this activity level, while Gilbert Melendez's 413-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gilbert Melendez | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 961 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +17 |
Jeremy Stephens started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gilbert Melendez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gilbert Melendez | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 946 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

