May 3, 2025
Women's Strawweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Marina Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 19 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 156 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Gillian Robertson's 4-fight experience advantage (19 vs 15 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gillian Robertson for the expected result. Had Marina Rodriguez pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Marina Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 108 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Marina Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:07 | 2:07 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 344 | 1 183 |
| ELO Change | +74 | -36 |
Gillian Robertson gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Marina Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 16 | 4 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 41 | 17 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 73 | 7 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 270 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | +112 | -112 |
Gillian Robertson dominated the striking exchanges with 73 vs 7 total strikes, 16 vs 4 significant strikes, 39.0% vs 23.5% accuracy. Gillian Robertson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Marina Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:21 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 10 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 335 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Gillian Robertson controlled Marina Rodriguez on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 5:21 of control time, 10 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Marina Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 175 | 210 |
| Activity ELO | 1 217 | 1 149 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -20 |
Gillian Robertson demonstrated solid activity levels with 175 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Gillian Robertson capitalized on this activity level, while Marina Rodriguez's 210-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Marina Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 145 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -18 |
Gillian Robertson extended her 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marina Rodriguez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Marina Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 108 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

