Gillian Robertson vs Mariya Agapova

September 16, 2022

Women's Flyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1078
(+28)
Gillian Robertson
Winner: Gillian Robertson
Submission
Round 2 • 2:19

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Gillian Robertson+28
Mariya Agapova-25
972
(-25)
Mariya Agapova

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Gillian Robertson: +33Mariya Agapova: -33

Performance Statistics

MetricGillian RobertsonMariya Agapova
Total UFC Fights135
Experience Gap8-8
Experience ELO1 0471 000
ELO Change+33-33
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What Happened

Gillian Robertson's 8-fight experience advantage (13 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gillian Robertson for the expected result. Had Mariya Agapova pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Gillian Robertson: +19Mariya Agapova: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricGillian RobertsonMariya Agapova
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 041978
ELO Change+19-19
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Gillian Robertson: +48Mariya Agapova: -31

Performance Statistics

MetricGillian RobertsonMariya Agapova
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round22
Time of Finish2:192:19
Win Type ELO1 171998
ELO Change+48-31
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What Happened

Gillian Robertson earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:19, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Mariya Agapova was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Gillian Robertson: +22Mariya Agapova: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricGillian RobertsonMariya Agapova
Significant Strikes Landed439
Significant Strikes Attempted1458
Total Strikes Landed784
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 0341 009
ELO Change+22-22
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What Happened

Mariya Agapova controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (84 vs 7 total strikes), significant strike advantage (39 vs 4), superior accuracy (67.2% vs 28.6%). However, since Mariya Agapova lost the overall fight, her striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Gillian Robertson's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Gillian Robertson: +47Mariya Agapova: -47

Performance Statistics

MetricGillian RobertsonMariya Agapova
Takedowns Landed30
Takedowns Attempted70
Ground Control Time4:470:29
Ground Strikes Landed025
Ground ELO1 130838
ELO Change+47-47
💡

What Happened

Gillian Robertson dominated Mariya Agapova on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 4:47 of control time, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Gillian Robertson: +20Mariya Agapova: -16

Performance Statistics

MetricGillian RobertsonMariya Agapova
Days Since Last Fight189196
Activity ELO1 105986
ELO Change+20-16
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What Happened

Gillian Robertson demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Gillian Robertson capitalized on this activity level, while Mariya Agapova's 196-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Gillian Robertson: +21Mariya Agapova: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricGillian RobertsonMariya Agapova
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 058985
ELO Change+21-19
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What Happened

Gillian Robertson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mariya Agapova is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Gillian Robertson: +19Mariya Agapova: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricGillian RobertsonMariya Agapova
Weight ClassWomen's FlyweightWomen's Flyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 041978
ELO Change+19-19
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.