September 16, 2022
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Mariya Agapova |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 047 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Gillian Robertson's 8-fight experience advantage (13 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gillian Robertson for the expected result. Had Mariya Agapova pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Mariya Agapova |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 041 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Mariya Agapova |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:19 | 2:19 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 171 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -31 |
Gillian Robertson earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:19, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Mariya Agapova was submitted.
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Mariya Agapova |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 39 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 14 | 58 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 7 | 84 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 034 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Mariya Agapova controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (84 vs 7 total strikes), significant strike advantage (39 vs 4), superior accuracy (67.2% vs 28.6%). However, since Mariya Agapova lost the overall fight, her striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Gillian Robertson's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Mariya Agapova |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:47 | 0:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 25 |
| Ground ELO | 1 130 | 838 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -47 |
Gillian Robertson dominated Mariya Agapova on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 4:47 of control time, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Mariya Agapova |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 189 | 196 |
| Activity ELO | 1 105 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -16 |
Gillian Robertson demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Gillian Robertson capitalized on this activity level, while Mariya Agapova's 196-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Mariya Agapova |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 058 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -19 |
Gillian Robertson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mariya Agapova is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Mariya Agapova |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 041 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

