June 28, 2024
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 17 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 100 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Gillian Robertson's 2-fight experience advantage (17 vs 15 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gillian Robertson for the expected result. Had Michelle Waterson-Gomez pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 073 | 961 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 254 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Gillian Robertson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 77 | 21 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 105 | 52 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 122 | 41 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 145 | 924 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Gillian Robertson dominated the striking exchanges with 122 vs 41 total strikes, 77 vs 21 significant strikes, 73.3% vs 40.4% accuracy. Gillian Robertson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 12:34 | 0:19 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 67 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 1 277 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Gillian Robertson controlled Michelle Waterson-Gomez on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 12:34 of control time, 67 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 161 | 280 |
| Activity ELO | 1 154 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -18 |
Gillian Robertson demonstrated solid activity levels with 161 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Gillian Robertson capitalized on this activity level, while Michelle Waterson-Gomez's 280-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 097 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -16 |
Gillian Robertson extended her 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Michelle Waterson-Gomez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 073 | 955 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.