April 14, 2023
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Piera Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 11 | -11 |
| Experience ELO | 1 082 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Gillian Robertson's 11-fight experience advantage (14 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gillian Robertson for the expected result. Had Piera Rodriguez pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Piera Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 062 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Piera Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:21 | 4:21 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 219 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -31 |
Gillian Robertson earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:21, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Piera Rodriguez was submitted.
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Piera Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 26 | 12 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 39 | 33 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 46 | 25 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 076 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Gillian Robertson edged the striking exchanges with 46 vs 25 total strikes, 26 vs 12 significant strikes, 66.7% vs 36.4% accuracy. Gillian Robertson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Piera Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:23 | 0:54 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 14 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 294 | 990 |
| ELO Change | +164 | -164 |
Gillian Robertson dominated Piera Rodriguez on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 6:23 of control time, 14 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Piera Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 210 | 182 |
| Activity ELO | 1 127 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -18 |
Gillian Robertson demonstrated standard activity with 210 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Gillian Robertson capitalized on this activity level, while Piera Rodriguez's 182-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Piera Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 082 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -20 |
Gillian Robertson extended her 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Piera Rodriguez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gillian Robertson | Piera Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 062 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.