August 30, 2013
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 20 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 14 | -14 |
| Experience ELO | 1 159 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Gleison Tibau's 14-fight experience advantage (20 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gleison Tibau for the expected result. Had Jamie Varner pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 103 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 262 | 1 168 |
| ELO Change | +8 | -8 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Gleison Tibau receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 26 | 37 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 55 | 76 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 55 | 63 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 229 | 1 205 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Jamie Varner controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (37 vs 26). However, since Jamie Varner lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Gleison Tibau's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:40 | 1:56 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 15 | 15 |
| Ground ELO | 1 377 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Gleison Tibau edged out Jamie Varner on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 5:40 of control time, 15 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 105 | 245 |
| Activity ELO | 1 297 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -11 |
Gleison Tibau demonstrated solid activity levels with 105 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Gleison Tibau capitalized on this activity level, while Jamie Varner's 245-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 138 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -17 |
Gleison Tibau extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jamie Varner is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 103 | 1 015 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.