July 4, 2008
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Joe Stevenson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 014 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Joe Stevenson's 2-fight experience advantage (8 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Joe Stevenson for the expected result. Had Gleison Tibau pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Joe Stevenson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 004 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Joe Stevenson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:57 | 2:57 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 057 | 1 263 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +40 |
Joe Stevenson earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:57, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Gleison Tibau was submitted.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Joe Stevenson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 12 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 24 | 27 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 28 | 13 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 979 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -61 | +61 |
Joe Stevenson controlled the striking exchanges with 12 vs 4 significant strikes, 44.4% vs 16.7% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Joe Stevenson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Joe Stevenson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:31 | 3:14 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 090 | 1 248 |
| ELO Change | -75 | +75 |
Joe Stevenson controlled Gleison Tibau on the ground with 1 takedown, 3:14 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Joe Stevenson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 154 | 168 |
| Activity ELO | 1 094 | 1 194 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +31 |
Joe Stevenson demonstrated solid activity levels with 168 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Joe Stevenson capitalized on this activity level, while Gleison Tibau's 154-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Joe Stevenson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 017 | 1 105 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Joe Stevenson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gleison Tibau is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Joe Stevenson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 003 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.