May 17, 2013
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | John Cholish |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 19 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 16 | -16 |
| Experience ELO | 1 129 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Gleison Tibau's 16-fight experience advantage (19 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gleison Tibau for the expected result. Had John Cholish pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | John Cholish |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 085 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | John Cholish |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:34 | 2:34 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 254 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -23 |
Gleison Tibau earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:34, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. John Cholish was submitted.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | John Cholish |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 21 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 67 | 26 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 23 | 9 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 207 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Gleison Tibau edged the striking exchanges with 21 vs 9 significant strikes. Gleison Tibau capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | John Cholish |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:27 | 0:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 358 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -44 |
Gleison Tibau dominated John Cholish on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 1:27 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | John Cholish |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 105 | 378 |
| Activity ELO | 1 270 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -8 |
Gleison Tibau demonstrated solid activity levels with 105 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Gleison Tibau capitalized on this activity level, while John Cholish's 378-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | John Cholish |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 118 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -15 |
Gleison Tibau started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. John Cholish is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | John Cholish |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 085 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

