November 17, 2006
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 971 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Nick Diaz's 9-fight experience advantage (10 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nick Diaz for the expected result. Had Gleison Tibau pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:27 | 2:27 |
| Win Type ELO | 974 | 1 196 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +52 |
Nick Diaz gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 24 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 9 | 51 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 7 | 117 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 928 | 1 261 |
| ELO Change | -72 | +72 |
Nick Diaz dominated the striking exchanges with 117 vs 7 total strikes, 24 vs 0 significant strikes, 47.1% vs 0.0% accuracy. Nick Diaz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:42 | 3:17 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 23 |
| Ground ELO | 964 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Nick Diaz controlled Gleison Tibau on the ground with 3:17 of control time, 23 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 85 |
| Activity ELO | 984 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +49 |
Nick Diaz demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 85 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Nick Diaz capitalized on this activity level, while Gleison Tibau's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +23 |
Nick Diaz extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gleison Tibau is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.