November 18, 2011
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 156 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Gleison Tibau's 7-fight experience advantage (15 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gleison Tibau for the expected result. Had Rafael Dos Anjos pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 099 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 267 | 1 273 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -11 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Gleison Tibau receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 56 | 25 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 128 | 96 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 64 | 39 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 252 | 1 154 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Gleison Tibau controlled the striking exchanges with 64 vs 39 total strikes, 56 vs 25 significant strikes, 43.8% vs 26.0% accuracy. Gleison Tibau capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:43 | 2:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 367 | 1 172 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Gleison Tibau edged out Rafael Dos Anjos on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 1:43 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 176 | 141 |
| Activity ELO | 1 291 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -14 |
Gleison Tibau demonstrated solid activity levels with 176 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Gleison Tibau capitalized on this activity level, while Rafael Dos Anjos's 141-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 133 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -18 |
Gleison Tibau extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafael Dos Anjos is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 099 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

