May 27, 2011
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 129 | 970 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Gleison Tibau's 10-fight experience advantage (14 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gleison Tibau for the expected result. Had Rafaello Oliveira pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 080 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:28 | 3:28 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 256 | 955 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -15 |
Gleison Tibau earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:28, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Rafaello Oliveira was submitted.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 19 | 12 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 56 | 48 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 38 | 15 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 216 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -43 |
Gleison Tibau controlled the striking exchanges with 38 vs 15 total strikes, 19 vs 12 significant strikes, 33.9% vs 25.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Gleison Tibau capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:21 | 0:14 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 9 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 348 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -51 |
Gleison Tibau dominated Rafaello Oliveira on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 2:21 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 70 | 423 |
| Activity ELO | 1 266 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -9 |
Gleison Tibau demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 70 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Gleison Tibau capitalized on this activity level, while Rafaello Oliveira's 423-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 109 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -15 |
Gleison Tibau extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafaello Oliveira is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 080 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

