February 27, 2015
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 25 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | 16 | -16 |
| Experience ELO | 1 159 | 1 262 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +63 |
Tony Ferguson overcame a 16-fight experience disadvantage (9 vs 25 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Gleison Tibau.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 105 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:37 | 2:37 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 202 | 1 359 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +60 |
Tony Ferguson earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:37, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 11 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 20 | 38 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 2 | 17 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 109 | 1 312 |
| ELO Change | -54 | +54 |
Tony Ferguson edged the striking exchanges with 11 vs 2 significant strikes, 28.9% vs 10.0% accuracy. Tony Ferguson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:45 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 213 | 1 419 |
| ELO Change | -158 | +158 |
Tony Ferguson dominated Gleison Tibau on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:45 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 41 | 84 |
| Activity ELO | 1 313 | 1 340 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +76 |
Tony Ferguson demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 84 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Tony Ferguson capitalized on this activity level, while Gleison Tibau's 41-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 5 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 144 | 1 188 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +42 |
Tony Ferguson continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Gleison Tibau's now at 0.
| Metric | Gleison Tibau | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 105 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.