May 31, 2024
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Grant Dawson | Joe Solecki |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 246 | 1 156 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Grant Dawson's 3-fight experience advantage (11 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Grant Dawson for the expected result. Had Joe Solecki pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Grant Dawson | Joe Solecki |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 144 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Grant Dawson | Joe Solecki |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 359 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Grant Dawson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Grant Dawson | Joe Solecki |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 46 | 12 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 70 | 19 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 146 | 27 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 188 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -57 |
Grant Dawson dominated the striking exchanges with 146 vs 27 total strikes, 46 vs 12 significant strikes. Grant Dawson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Grant Dawson | Joe Solecki |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 13:46 | 0:14 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 38 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 493 | 1 174 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Grant Dawson dominated Joe Solecki on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 13:46 of control time, 38 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Grant Dawson | Joe Solecki |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 238 | 182 |
| Activity ELO | 1 231 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -15 |
Grant Dawson demonstrated standard activity with 238 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Grant Dawson capitalized on this activity level, while Joe Solecki's 182-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Grant Dawson | Joe Solecki |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 195 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -15 |
Grant Dawson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Joe Solecki is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Grant Dawson | Joe Solecki |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 144 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

