October 6, 2023
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Grant Dawson | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 23 |
| Experience Gap | -13 | 13 |
| Experience ELO | 1 217 | 1 214 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
King Green's 13-fight experience advantage (23 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding King Green for the expected result. Had Grant Dawson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Grant Dawson | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 127 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Grant Dawson | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:33 | 0:33 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 335 | 1 470 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +122 |
King Green secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:33 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.
| Metric | Grant Dawson | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 6 | 11 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 131 | 1 438 |
| ELO Change | -181 | +181 |
King Green controlled the striking exchanges with 7 vs 0 significant strikes, 63.6% vs 0.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. King Green capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Grant Dawson | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 459 | 1 383 |
| ELO Change | -85 | +85 |
King Green landed 1 knockdown followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Grant Dawson | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 98 | 70 |
| Activity ELO | 1 213 | 1 384 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +43 |
King Green demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 70 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, King Green capitalized on this activity level, while Grant Dawson's 98-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Grant Dawson | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 178 | 1 151 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +31 |
King Green extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Grant Dawson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Grant Dawson | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 127 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.