November 4, 2022
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Grant Dawson | Mark Madsen |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 236 | 1 192 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Grant Dawson's 3-fight experience advantage (8 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Grant Dawson for the expected result. Had Mark Madsen pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Grant Dawson | Mark Madsen |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 136 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Grant Dawson | Mark Madsen |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:05 | 2:05 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 364 | 1 166 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -27 |
Grant Dawson earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 2:05, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Mark Madsen was submitted.
| Metric | Grant Dawson | Mark Madsen |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 33 | 15 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 49 | 30 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 73 | 50 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 282 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | +64 | -64 |
Grant Dawson controlled the striking exchanges with 73 vs 50 total strikes, 33 vs 15 significant strikes, 67.3% vs 50.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Grant Dawson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Grant Dawson | Mark Madsen |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 9:31 | 0:24 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 7 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 528 | 1 193 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -49 |
Grant Dawson dominated Mark Madsen on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 9:31 of control time, 7 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Grant Dawson | Mark Madsen |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 190 | 211 |
| Activity ELO | 1 208 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -17 |
Grant Dawson demonstrated standard activity with 190 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Grant Dawson capitalized on this activity level, while Mark Madsen's 211-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Grant Dawson | Mark Madsen |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 183 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -18 |
Grant Dawson extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mark Madsen is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Grant Dawson | Mark Madsen |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 136 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

