Grant Dawson vs Mark Madsen

November 4, 2022

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1259
(+33)
Grant Dawson
Winner: Grant Dawson
Submission
Round 3 • 2:05

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Grant Dawson+33
Mark Madsen-31
1126
(-31)
Mark Madsen

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Grant Dawson: +34Mark Madsen: -34

Performance Statistics

MetricGrant DawsonMark Madsen
Total UFC Fights85
Experience Gap3-3
Experience ELO1 2361 192
ELO Change+34-34
💡

What Happened

Grant Dawson's 3-fight experience advantage (8 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Grant Dawson for the expected result. Had Mark Madsen pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Grant Dawson: +19Mark Madsen: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricGrant DawsonMark Madsen
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 1361 066
ELO Change+19-19
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Grant Dawson: +40Mark Madsen: -27

Performance Statistics

MetricGrant DawsonMark Madsen
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round33
Time of Finish2:052:05
Win Type ELO1 3641 166
ELO Change+40-27
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What Happened

Grant Dawson earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 2:05, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Mark Madsen was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Grant Dawson: +64Mark Madsen: -64

Performance Statistics

MetricGrant DawsonMark Madsen
Significant Strikes Landed3315
Significant Strikes Attempted4930
Total Strikes Landed7350
Knockdowns Scored10
Striking ELO1 2821 132
ELO Change+64-64
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What Happened

Grant Dawson controlled the striking exchanges with 73 vs 50 total strikes, 33 vs 15 significant strikes, 67.3% vs 50.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Grant Dawson capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Grant Dawson: +49Mark Madsen: -49

Performance Statistics

MetricGrant DawsonMark Madsen
Takedowns Landed20
Takedowns Attempted60
Ground Control Time9:310:24
Ground Strikes Landed74
Ground ELO1 5281 193
ELO Change+49-49
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What Happened

Grant Dawson dominated Mark Madsen on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 9:31 of control time, 7 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Grant Dawson: +21Mark Madsen: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricGrant DawsonMark Madsen
Days Since Last Fight190211
Activity ELO1 2081 098
ELO Change+21-17
💡

What Happened

Grant Dawson demonstrated standard activity with 190 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Grant Dawson capitalized on this activity level, while Mark Madsen's 211-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Grant Dawson: +22Mark Madsen: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricGrant DawsonMark Madsen
Win Streak20
Win Streak ELO1 1831 093
ELO Change+22-18
💡

What Happened

Grant Dawson extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mark Madsen is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Grant Dawson: +19Mark Madsen: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricGrant DawsonMark Madsen
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 1361 066
ELO Change+19-19
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.