Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki

May 9, 2026

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1282
(+20)
Grant Dawson
Winner: Grant Dawson
Submission
Round 3 • 4:42

C-ELO Evolution

Grant Dawson+20
Mateusz Rebecki-17
1073
(-17)
Mateusz Rebecki

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Grant Dawson: +16Mateusz Rebecki: -16

Performance Statistics

MetricGrant DawsonMateusz Rebecki
Total UFC Fights158
Experience Gap7-7
Experience ELO1 2731 051
ELO Change+16-16
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What Happened

Grant Dawson's 7-fight experience advantage (15 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Grant Dawson for the expected result. Had Mateusz Rebecki pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Grant Dawson: +14Mateusz Rebecki: -14

Performance Statistics

MetricGrant DawsonMateusz Rebecki
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 1621 009
ELO Change+14-14
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Grant Dawson: +22Mateusz Rebecki: -15

Performance Statistics

MetricGrant DawsonMateusz Rebecki
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round33
Time of Finish4:424:42
Win Type ELO1 4111 103
ELO Change+22-15
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What Happened

Grant Dawson earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 4:42, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Mateusz Rebecki was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Grant Dawson: +22Mateusz Rebecki: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricGrant DawsonMateusz Rebecki
Significant Strikes Landed3533
Significant Strikes Attempted9464
Total Strikes Landed7149
Knockdowns Scored01
Striking ELO1 2331 127
ELO Change+22-22
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What Happened

Grant Dawson edged the striking exchanges with 71 vs 49 total strikes, 37.2% vs 51.6% accuracy. Grant Dawson capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Grant Dawson: +39Mateusz Rebecki: -39

Performance Statistics

MetricGrant DawsonMateusz Rebecki
Takedowns Landed11
Takedowns Attempted35
Ground Control Time7:082:22
Ground Strikes Landed52
Ground ELO1 5001 179
ELO Change+39-39
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What Happened

Grant Dawson dominated Mateusz Rebecki on the ground with 1 takedown, 7:08 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Grant Dawson: +18Mateusz Rebecki: -10

Performance Statistics

MetricGrant DawsonMateusz Rebecki
Days Since Last Fight154196
Activity ELO1 2961 074
ELO Change+18-10
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What Happened

Grant Dawson demonstrated solid activity levels with 154 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Grant Dawson capitalized on this activity level, while Mateusz Rebecki's 196-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Grant Dawson: +13Mateusz Rebecki: -12

Performance Statistics

MetricGrant DawsonMateusz Rebecki
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 2181 029
ELO Change+13-12
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What Happened

Grant Dawson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mateusz Rebecki is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Grant Dawson: +14Mateusz Rebecki: -14

Performance Statistics

MetricGrant DawsonMateusz Rebecki
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 1621 008
ELO Change+14-14
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.