October 12, 2024
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Grant Dawson | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 268 | 1 114 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Grant Dawson's 4-fight experience advantage (12 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Grant Dawson for the expected result. Had Rafa Garcia pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Grant Dawson | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 158 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Grant Dawson | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:42 | 1:42 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 398 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -19 |
Grant Dawson gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Grant Dawson | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 44 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 90 | 12 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 80 | 29 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 259 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | +71 | -71 |
Grant Dawson dominated the striking exchanges with 80 vs 29 total strikes, 44 vs 5 significant strikes. Grant Dawson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Grant Dawson | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:09 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 39 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 518 | 1 182 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Grant Dawson controlled Rafa Garcia on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 5:09 of control time, 39 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Grant Dawson | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 134 | 547 |
| Activity ELO | 1 263 | 1 135 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -16 |
Grant Dawson demonstrated solid activity levels with 134 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Grant Dawson capitalized on this activity level, while Rafa Garcia's 547-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Grant Dawson | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 210 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -13 |
Grant Dawson extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafa Garcia is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Grant Dawson | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 158 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

