Grant Dawson vs Rafa Garcia

October 12, 2024

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1279
(+29)
Grant Dawson
Winner: Grant Dawson
KO/TKO
Round 2 • 1:42

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Grant Dawson+29
Rafa Garcia-24
1082
(-24)
Rafa Garcia

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Grant Dawson: +22Rafa Garcia: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricGrant DawsonRafa Garcia
Total UFC Fights128
Experience Gap4-4
Experience ELO1 2681 114
ELO Change+22-22
💡

What Happened

Grant Dawson's 4-fight experience advantage (12 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Grant Dawson for the expected result. Had Rafa Garcia pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Grant Dawson: +14Rafa Garcia: -14

Performance Statistics

MetricGrant DawsonRafa Garcia
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 1581 018
ELO Change+14-14
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Grant Dawson: +39Rafa Garcia: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricGrant DawsonRafa Garcia
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round22
Time of Finish1:421:42
Win Type ELO1 3981 124
ELO Change+39-19
💡

What Happened

Grant Dawson gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Grant Dawson: +71Rafa Garcia: -71

Performance Statistics

MetricGrant DawsonRafa Garcia
Significant Strikes Landed445
Significant Strikes Attempted9012
Total Strikes Landed8029
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 2591 025
ELO Change+71-71
💡

What Happened

Grant Dawson dominated the striking exchanges with 80 vs 29 total strikes, 44 vs 5 significant strikes. Grant Dawson capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Grant Dawson: +25Rafa Garcia: -25

Performance Statistics

MetricGrant DawsonRafa Garcia
Takedowns Landed20
Takedowns Attempted40
Ground Control Time5:090:00
Ground Strikes Landed390
Ground ELO1 5181 182
ELO Change+25-25
💡

What Happened

Grant Dawson controlled Rafa Garcia on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 5:09 of control time, 39 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Grant Dawson: +32Rafa Garcia: -16

Performance Statistics

MetricGrant DawsonRafa Garcia
Days Since Last Fight134547
Activity ELO1 2631 135
ELO Change+32-16
💡

What Happened

Grant Dawson demonstrated solid activity levels with 134 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Grant Dawson capitalized on this activity level, while Rafa Garcia's 547-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Grant Dawson: +15Rafa Garcia: -13

Performance Statistics

MetricGrant DawsonRafa Garcia
Win Streak20
Win Streak ELO1 2101 037
ELO Change+15-13
💡

What Happened

Grant Dawson extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafa Garcia is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Grant Dawson: +14Rafa Garcia: -14

Performance Statistics

MetricGrant DawsonRafa Garcia
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 1581 018
ELO Change+14-14
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.