March 6, 2009
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gray Maynard | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 161 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Gray Maynard's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gray Maynard for the expected result. Had Jim Miller pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gray Maynard | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 102 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gray Maynard | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 285 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Gray Maynard earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Gray Maynard | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 37 | 25 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 93 | 100 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 59 | 28 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 261 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Gray Maynard controlled the striking exchanges with 59 vs 28 total strikes, 37 vs 25 significant strikes, 39.8% vs 25.0% accuracy. Gray Maynard capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gray Maynard | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:05 | 1:26 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 387 | 1 257 |
| ELO Change | +58 | -58 |
Gray Maynard controlled Jim Miller on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2:05 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Gray Maynard | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 134 | 87 |
| Activity ELO | 1 232 | 1 139 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -19 |
Gray Maynard demonstrated solid activity levels with 134 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Gray Maynard capitalized on this activity level, while Jim Miller's 87-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gray Maynard | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 5 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 140 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -18 |
Gray Maynard continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Jim Miller's now at 0.
| Metric | Gray Maynard | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 102 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.