January 10, 2010
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gray Maynard | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 215 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -24 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (8 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Gray Maynard | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 140 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gray Maynard | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 303 | 1 235 |
| ELO Change | +9 | -9 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Gray Maynard receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Gray Maynard | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 41 | 70 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 142 | 251 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 53 | 77 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 295 | 1 154 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
Nate Diaz controlled the striking through superior volume (77 vs 53 total strikes), significant strike advantage (70 vs 41). However, since Nate Diaz lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Gray Maynard's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Gray Maynard | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:11 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 420 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | +6 | -6 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Gray Maynard | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 118 | 118 |
| Activity ELO | 1 301 | 1 188 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -18 |
Gray Maynard demonstrated solid activity levels with 118 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Gray Maynard capitalized on this activity level, while Nate Diaz's 118-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gray Maynard | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 7 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 235 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -16 |
Gray Maynard continued building serious momentum with a 7-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Nate Diaz's now at 0.
| Metric | Gray Maynard | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 140 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

