Gray Maynard vs Nate Diaz

January 10, 2010

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1256
(+22)
Gray Maynard
Winner: Gray Maynard
Decision - Split
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Gray Maynard+22
Nate Diaz-16
1117
(-16)
Nate Diaz

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Gray Maynard: +25Nate Diaz: -24

Performance Statistics

MetricGray MaynardNate Diaz
Total UFC Fights89
Experience Gap-11
Experience ELO1 2151 076
ELO Change+25-24
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What Happened

Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (8 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Gray Maynard: +18Nate Diaz: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricGray MaynardNate Diaz
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 1401 051
ELO Change+18-18
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Gray Maynard: +9Nate Diaz: -9

Performance Statistics

MetricGray MaynardNate Diaz
Fight OutcomeDecision - SplitDecision - Split
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 3031 235
ELO Change+9-9
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What Happened

The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Gray Maynard receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Gray Maynard: +14Nate Diaz: -14

Performance Statistics

MetricGray MaynardNate Diaz
Significant Strikes Landed4170
Significant Strikes Attempted142251
Total Strikes Landed5377
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 2951 154
ELO Change+14-14
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What Happened

Nate Diaz controlled the striking through superior volume (77 vs 53 total strikes), significant strike advantage (70 vs 41). However, since Nate Diaz lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Gray Maynard's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Gray Maynard: +6Nate Diaz: -6

Performance Statistics

MetricGray MaynardNate Diaz
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted03
Ground Control Time0:110:00
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO1 4201 099
ELO Change+6-6
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What Happened

Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Gray Maynard: +45Nate Diaz: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricGray MaynardNate Diaz
Days Since Last Fight118118
Activity ELO1 3011 188
ELO Change+45-18
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What Happened

Gray Maynard demonstrated solid activity levels with 118 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Gray Maynard capitalized on this activity level, while Nate Diaz's 118-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Gray Maynard: +45Nate Diaz: -16

Performance Statistics

MetricGray MaynardNate Diaz
Win Streak70
Win Streak ELO1 2351 084
ELO Change+45-16
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What Happened

Gray Maynard continued building serious momentum with a 7-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Nate Diaz's now at 0.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Gray Maynard: +18Nate Diaz: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricGray MaynardNate Diaz
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 1401 050
ELO Change+18-18
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.