October 5, 2018
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gray Maynard | Nik Lentz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 20 | 21 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 078 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (20 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Gray Maynard | Nik Lentz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 054 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gray Maynard | Nik Lentz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:19 | 1:19 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 105 | 1 255 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +77 |
Nik Lentz gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Gray Maynard | Nik Lentz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 75 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 27 | 101 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 13 | 92 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 882 | 1 198 |
| ELO Change | -74 | +74 |
Nik Lentz dominated the striking exchanges with 92 vs 13 total strikes, 75 vs 13 significant strikes, 74.3% vs 48.1% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Nik Lentz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gray Maynard | Nik Lentz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:08 | 3:34 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 40 |
| Ground ELO | 1 179 | 1 251 |
| ELO Change | -97 | +97 |
Nik Lentz controlled Gray Maynard on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 3:34 of control time, 40 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Gray Maynard | Nik Lentz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 456 | 127 |
| Activity ELO | 1 180 | 1 235 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +43 |
Nik Lentz demonstrated solid activity levels with 127 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Nik Lentz capitalized on this activity level, while Gray Maynard's 456-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gray Maynard | Nik Lentz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 136 | 1 133 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +27 |
Nik Lentz started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gray Maynard is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gray Maynard | Nik Lentz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 047 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

