December 18, 2020
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Greg Hardy | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 060 | 1 201 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Marcin Tybura's 5-fight experience advantage (13 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Marcin Tybura for the expected result. Had Greg Hardy pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Greg Hardy | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 026 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Greg Hardy | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:31 | 4:31 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 220 | 1 347 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +86 |
Marcin Tybura gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Greg Hardy | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 50 | 51 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 91 | 101 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 50 | 60 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 172 | 1 148 |
| ELO Change | -83 | +83 |
Marcin Tybura slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Marcin Tybura capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Greg Hardy | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 1:27 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 18 |
| Ground ELO | 1 080 | 1 330 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Marcin Tybura controlled Greg Hardy on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:27 of control time, 18 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Greg Hardy | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 49 | 71 |
| Activity ELO | 1 114 | 1 263 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +48 |
Marcin Tybura demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 71 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Marcin Tybura capitalized on this activity level, while Greg Hardy's 49-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Greg Hardy | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 040 | 1 125 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +26 |
Marcin Tybura extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Greg Hardy is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Greg Hardy | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 025 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.