May 8, 2020
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Greg Hardy | Yorgan De Castro |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 050 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Greg Hardy's 4-fight experience advantage (6 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Greg Hardy for the expected result. Had Yorgan De Castro pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Greg Hardy | Yorgan De Castro |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 024 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Greg Hardy | Yorgan De Castro |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 181 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Greg Hardy earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Greg Hardy | Yorgan De Castro |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 55 | 24 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 124 | 69 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 66 | 24 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 188 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Greg Hardy controlled the striking exchanges with 66 vs 24 total strikes, 55 vs 24 significant strikes, 44.4% vs 34.8% accuracy. Greg Hardy capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Greg Hardy | Yorgan De Castro |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:53 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 061 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Greg Hardy did not secure a significant ground advantage against Yorgan De Castro on the ground with 0:53 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Greg Hardy | Yorgan De Castro |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 182 | 217 |
| Activity ELO | 1 092 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -18 |
Greg Hardy demonstrated standard activity with 182 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Greg Hardy capitalized on this activity level, while Yorgan De Castro's 217-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Greg Hardy | Yorgan De Castro |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 033 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Greg Hardy started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Yorgan De Castro is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Greg Hardy | Yorgan De Castro |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 023 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.