March 26, 2010
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Greg Soto | Matthew Riddle |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 973 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Matthew Riddle's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matthew Riddle for the expected result. Had Greg Soto pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Greg Soto | Matthew Riddle |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 981 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Greg Soto | Matthew Riddle |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | DQ | DQ |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:30 | 1:30 |
| Win Type ELO | 992 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +8 |
The fight concluded with Matthew Riddle earning a DQ, with adjustments based on the nature of the result.
| Metric | Greg Soto | Matthew Riddle |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 21 | 47 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 39 | 88 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 63 | 92 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 969 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Matthew Riddle controlled the striking exchanges with 92 vs 63 total strikes, 47 vs 21 significant strikes. Matthew Riddle capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Greg Soto | Matthew Riddle |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:41 | 7:36 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 959 | 1 245 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Matthew Riddle dominated Greg Soto on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 7:36 of control time, 7 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Greg Soto | Matthew Riddle |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 982 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +36 |
Matthew Riddle demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matthew Riddle capitalized on this activity level, while Greg Soto's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Greg Soto | Matthew Riddle |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 982 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Matthew Riddle started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Greg Soto is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Greg Soto | Matthew Riddle |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 981 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.